Finding stocks upstream of major market moves
Independent research on overlooked public companies, second-order beneficiaries, and market narratives before they become consensus.
before the crowd
Every piece starts from the same question: what's being mispriced, and why hasn't the market noticed yet?
Deep Dives
Company-specific research built from SEC filings, earnings transcripts, supply chain mapping, and competitive positioning. Not summaries — original analysis.
Catalyst Maps
Theme-based research maps: AI Infrastructure, Defense Autonomy, Space & ISR, Energy/Grid, Software Reversal. Who supplies what, and where the bottlenecks are.
ShovelStocks
The picks-and-shovels names behind larger narratives. The underfollowed suppliers sitting one layer below the headline winners.
Rerate Watch
Stocks where the market may still be valuing the company on the old story — while the new story is already showing up in the numbers.
Earnings Read-Throughs
What NVDA, LMT, RTX, and other large-cap reports tell us about demand flowing to second-order names. Bottleneck extraction from the transcripts.
Thesis Board
Structured community notes: bullish, bearish, neutral. Evidence, questions, and live debate. Think clearly, write publicly, update honestly.
about supply chains
The Underfollowed Suppliers Beneath the AI Infrastructure Buildout
Everyone sees NVDA. The real question is: who supplies the optics, thermal management, power infrastructure, rack systems, and specialty materials that make a 100MW data center possible? These are $50M–$500M companies with record backlogs and zero analyst coverage.
We map emerging market narratives before they become consensus. Here's how.
Identify the Bottleneck
Every mega-trend creates supply constraints somewhere. We read large-cap earnings to find where demand is outrunning capacity.
Map the Stack
For every sector, we map the full supply chain and verify public company coverage at each layer — from prime contractor down to raw material.
Score the Catalysts
Twelve-factor scoring framework: backlog, revenue momentum, margin quality, customer validation, catalyst timeline, and hype/dilution risk.
Enter at Phase 2–3
Story ignored → first proof → proof repeats. We aim to be positioned when evidence begins compounding but before institutions get permission to buy.